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Daily Update 4/15 – Don’t Panic

By |2020-04-16T21:06:26+00:00April 15th, 2020|Daily Updates|

Today's new totals from the Ohio Department of Health showed a big leap upwards to 475 lab confirmed cases setting a daily record for the state of Ohio.  I've already seen disappointment on social media regarding the number. As always, don't overreact to any single day's numbers.  The trends are what matter when we analyze the data and the trend based on the date of first infection (blue line) is just as negative as it was yesterday.  What might be accounting for uptick in reported cases is a big increase in testing.  Today, 3678 new tests were reported - 1/3 [...]

4/12 Daily Update and the Meaning of the Derivative

By |2020-04-15T17:09:12+00:00April 12th, 2020|Daily Updates|

Today's total - 331 new confirmed cases, 6518 overall and 6604 including probable cases. The trend continues downward, but it isn't very fast.  If you want to understand why and what that means, keep reading. When I analyze the data, I look at 3 pieces of information to understand where the data is leading us. Before sharing those, I want to address death numbers. Obviously the goal of this effort is to prevent deaths, but as long as stay under the threshold of overwhelming our hospitals we'll see some % of infected population pass away from this 10-20 days after [...]

Ohio Coronavirus Daily Update – 04/11/2020

By |2020-04-15T17:09:20+00:00April 12th, 2020|Daily Updates|

I'm super excited to be posting this on our new site instead of Facebook as we launch an effort to Restart Ohio in a safe and data driven manner.  Thanks to Michael Shawn McCabe and McCabe Media for putting this together. April 11 brings us another day where we extend the same trends that were already underway.  I've updated my graph to just include confirmed cases per the ODH change to begin tracking probable cases.  New daily reported cases have leveled off and begun to decline, but that's driven by the underlying trend based on date of first infection.  That [...]