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About Mike Wilson

Mike Wilson has a B.S in Applied Mathematics from the University of Cincinnati and is CTO of Interlink Cloud Advisors, a technology consulting firm based in Cincinnati. He has done extensive analysis on publicly available data on COVID-19 spread in Ohio.

Deep Dive into COVID-19 – Part 2 – Reopen Ohio Now

By |2020-05-01T00:33:45+00:00May 1st, 2020|Uncategorized|

This is part 2 of my series on the threat of COVID-19 and our response.  In part 1, I reviewed the data and came to the conclusion that the virus is a legitimate threat.  Why would I make that argument while simultaneously believing we should # RestartOhio now?  First, I've analyzed the data in depth and believe that it's true.  But just as importantly, if you want to convince others, we won't be successful trying to deny the threat.  We'll have to convince them it's possible to reopen in a safe fashion. Let's start with some good news - social [...]

Deep Dive into COVID-19 – Part One

By |2020-04-29T23:18:40+00:00April 29th, 2020|Uncategorized|

I'm not sure anyone is actually convinced by long Facebook posts, but I enjoy digging into the data and unlike many, I try hard to share my thought processes and assumptions. I'll apologize ahead of time since this is likely to be long, but I hope this ends up being one of the more definitive deep dives into the subject of COVID-19. I see a lot of people saying that this virus isn't a threat or is clearly much less of a threat than originally expected. This is typically used to justify moving away from the current partial shutdown very [...]

Death Rates, a Natural Experiment and 4/22 Update

By |2020-04-23T14:11:57+00:00April 23rd, 2020|Uncategorized|

The most important question we face around the COVID-19 outbreak is just how deadly is it.  We know the virus is highly contagious, we presume that there is little built in immunity since the virus is "novel," or new to our population, but there is considerable spread as to the estimates of the actual death rate.  Some will argue this is like the flu and around 0.1%.  Other estimates are around 1% and I've seen higher numbers than that.  Even if this really is like the flu and has a 1 in 1000 death rate, a novel virus that spreads [...]

Ohio’s Prison Outbreak and What it Means for Ohio

By |2020-04-19T16:04:33+00:00April 19th, 2020|Uncategorized|

The story of the last few days has been a sudden rise in new cases reported in Ohio.  Yesterday's (4/18) total of 1081 lab confirmed cases blew away the previous record.  Even as tracking COVID-19 by onset date spreads out the new cases to some extent, we now have a very sharp positive trend showing up in the raw data. In fact, this is the strongest positive trend we've ever seen including back in mid-March before the shutdown orders went into effect.  I've heard a lot of speculation that this is a way to get the cases to actually match [...]

4/17 Daily Update – Another Day, Another Record

By |2020-04-18T14:30:49+00:00April 18th, 2020|Uncategorized|

Another day of mixed news.  Let's get the bad news out of the way first.  Ohio set another daily record for new lab confirmed cases reported with 619, up 8 from the day before.  When you look at the cases by date of onset though (the important trend), the uptick is clearly detectable, but not as sharp.  When looking at the county level numbers, this continues to be mostly driven by the outbreaks at the Marion Correctional Institution (152 new cases yesterday) and the Pickaway Correctional Institution (57 new cases yesterday).  Franklin County also had 108 cases reported which shows [...]

04/16 Daily Update – Big Changes

By |2020-04-17T13:11:26+00:00April 17th, 2020|Uncategorized|

Today was a big day for a number of reasons.  First, the daily reported new lab confirmed infections were 611 - beating the previous day's record by 136 - a huge increase.  Seems like terrible news at first glance, yet at the same time those numbers were being released Governor DeWine announced that our state will begin to reopen on May 1st.  This is huge!  This represents a massive shift in his rhetoric from the day before.  While I still believe we can open safely sooner than May 1st, I want to celebrate this enormous shift in our direction.  The [...]

Daily Update 4/15 – Don’t Panic

By |2020-04-16T21:06:26+00:00April 15th, 2020|Daily Updates|

Today's new totals from the Ohio Department of Health showed a big leap upwards to 475 lab confirmed cases setting a daily record for the state of Ohio.  I've already seen disappointment on social media regarding the number. As always, don't overreact to any single day's numbers.  The trends are what matter when we analyze the data and the trend based on the date of first infection (blue line) is just as negative as it was yesterday.  What might be accounting for uptick in reported cases is a big increase in testing.  Today, 3678 new tests were reported - 1/3 [...]

My Webinar on COVID-19 Analytics in Ohio

By |2020-04-15T17:08:36+00:00April 15th, 2020|Announcements|

On Tuesday night, I was fortunate enough to join the good folks at EmpowerU Ohio to share a presentation on data analytics.  It's critical we look at the data to understand how we got here and where we are going.  I hope you find this informative and as entertaining as math can be :). https://nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com/empoweruohio/recordings/GMT20200414-225946_The-Curren_1920x1080.mp4

4/12 Daily Update and the Meaning of the Derivative

By |2020-04-15T17:09:12+00:00April 12th, 2020|Daily Updates|

Today's total - 331 new confirmed cases, 6518 overall and 6604 including probable cases. The trend continues downward, but it isn't very fast.  If you want to understand why and what that means, keep reading. When I analyze the data, I look at 3 pieces of information to understand where the data is leading us. Before sharing those, I want to address death numbers. Obviously the goal of this effort is to prevent deaths, but as long as stay under the threshold of overwhelming our hospitals we'll see some % of infected population pass away from this 10-20 days after [...]

Ohio Coronavirus Daily Update – 04/11/2020

By |2020-04-15T17:09:20+00:00April 12th, 2020|Daily Updates|

I'm super excited to be posting this on our new site instead of Facebook as we launch an effort to Restart Ohio in a safe and data driven manner.  Thanks to Michael Shawn McCabe and McCabe Media for putting this together. April 11 brings us another day where we extend the same trends that were already underway.  I've updated my graph to just include confirmed cases per the ODH change to begin tracking probable cases.  New daily reported cases have leveled off and begun to decline, but that's driven by the underlying trend based on date of first infection.  That [...]